NOGAPS-ALPHA model simulations of stratospheric ozone during the SOLVE2 campaign
نویسندگان
چکیده
This paper presents three-dimensional prognostic O3 simulations with parameterized gas-phase photochemistry from the new NOGAPS-ALPHA middle atmosphere forecast model. We compare 5-day NOGAPS-ALPHA hindcasts of stratospheric O3 with satellite and DC-8 aircraft measurements for two cases during the SOLVE II campaign: (1) the cold, isolated vortex during 11–16 January 2003; and (2) the rapidly developing stratospheric warming of 17– 22 January 2003. In the first case we test three different photochemistry parameterizations. NOGAPS-ALPHA O3 simulations using the NRL-CHEM2D parameterization give the best agreement with SAGE III and POAM III profile measurements. 5-day NOGAPS-ALPHA hindcasts of polar O3 initialized with the NASA GEOS4 analyses produce better agreement with observations than do the operational ECMWF O3 forecasts of case 1. For case 2, both NOGAPS-ALPHA and ECMWF 114-h forecasts of the split vortex structure in lower stratospheric O3 on 21 January 2003 show comparable skill. Updated ECMWF O3 forecasts of this event at hour 42 display marked improvement from the 114-h forecast; corresponding updated 42-hour NOGAPSALPHA prognostic O3 fields initialized with the GEOS4 analyses do not improve significantly. When NOGAPSALPHA prognostic O3 is initialized with the higher resolution ECMWF O3 analyses, the NOGAPS-ALPHA 42-hour lower stratospheric O3 fields closely match the operational 42-hour ECMWF O3 forecast of the 21 January event. We find that stratospheric O3 forecasts at high latitudes in winter can depend on both model initial conditions and the treatment of photochemistry over periods of 1–5 days. OverCorrespondence to: J. P. McCormack ([email protected]) all, these results show that the new O3 initialization, photochemistry parameterization, and spectral transport in the NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP model can provide reliable shortrange stratospheric O3 forecasts during Arctic winter.
منابع مشابه
NOGAPS-ALPHA O3 simulations during SOLVE2
NOGAPS-ALPHA model simulations of stratospheric ozone during the SOLVE2 campaign J. P. McCormack, S. D. Eckermann, L. Coy, D. R. Allen, Y.-J. Kim, T. Hogan, B. Lawrence, A. Stephens, E. V. Browell, J. Burris, T. McGee, and C. R. Trepte E.O. Hulburt Center for Space Research, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington DC, USA Remote Sensing Division, Naval Research Laboratory, Washington DC, USA Mari...
متن کاملCHEM2D-OPP: A new linearized gas-phase ozone photochemistry parameterization for high-altitude NWP and climate models
The new CHEM2D-Ozone Photochemistry Parameterization (CHEM2D-OPP) for high-altitude numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems and climate models specifies the net ozone photochemical tendency and its sensitivity to changes in ozone mixing ratio, temperature and overhead ozone column based on calculations from the CHEM2D interactive middle atmospheric photochemical transport model. We evaluate ...
متن کاملTransport analysis of ozone enhancement in Southern Ontario during BAQS-Met
Twice-daily ozonesondes were launched from Harrow, in southwestern Ontario, Canada, during the BAQSMet (Border Air Quality and Meteorology Study) field campaign in June and July of 2007. A co-located radar windprofiler measured tropopause height continuously. These data, in combination with continuous surface ozone measurements and geo-statistical interpolation of satellite ozone observations, ...
متن کاملAssimilation of stratospheric and mesospheric temperatures from MLS and SABER into a global NWP model
The forecast model and three-dimensional variational data assimilation components of the Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS) have each been extended into the upper stratosphere and mesosphere to form an Advanced Level Physics High Altitude (ALPHA) version of NOGAPS extending to ∼100 km. This 5 NOGAPS-ALPHA NWP prototype is used to assimilate stratospheric and mesosphe...
متن کاملImpact of solar-induced stratospheric ozone decline on Southern Hemisphere westerlies during the Late Maunder Minimum
[1] The Southern Hemisphere Westerly Winds (SWW) constitute an important zonal circulation system that dominates the dynamics of the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. In the present study, we analyze results from two transient simulations (1630–2000 AD) conducted with the coupled atmosphere-ocean model EGMAM (ECHO-G with Middle Atmosphere Model): one simulation with fixed stratospheric ozone c...
متن کامل